Iran's Strait of Hormuz 'Blockade': Is It Really Possible? Uncover the Truth!

Iran's Ominous Warning – What's So Important About the Strait of Hormuz?

The world is on edge after Iranian state TV recently hinted at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway is the lifeblood of global energy supply, and any disruption could send oil and natural gas prices soaring. But can Iran truly blockade this seemingly wide body of water? How would they even attempt such a feat? Today, we'll dive into the hidden secrets of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's potential blockade strategies, and which countries stand to lose the most if this vital chokepoint is indeed shut down.

Looks Wide, But Actually a Narrow 'Chokepoint' – The Strait of Hormuz's Hidden Geographic Weakness

The Strait of Hormuz gets its name from Iran's Hormuz Island. On a map, it looks quite wide, with its narrowest point stretching 54km. However, the reality is that deep-water channels, suitable for large oil tankers, are extremely limited. It's like a wide highway where only a few lanes are actually safe for heavy traffic.

The key issue is depth. The Strait of Hormuz was once dry land during the Ice Age, so it's not very deep. Out of its 54km width, only a mere 9km is deep enough for large oil tankers to navigate safely. This narrow 9km section is further divided into three zones by the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) to prevent collisions: a 3km inbound lane, a 3km outbound lane, and a 3km buffer zone acting as a median.

The bigger problem? This crucial 9km shipping lane lies almost entirely within Iran's territorial waters. The Omani side of the strait is too shallow for large vessels, effectively forcing all major oil tankers to pass through Iranian-controlled waters.

The Loophole in International Law – Iran's 'Legal Roadblock' Scenario

So, can Iran just close off its territorial waters as it pleases? International law includes the principle of 'Innocent Passage,' a UN convention allowing vessels to transit through territorial waters without special prior permission. Iran is a signatory to this convention.

However, there's a critical loophole. The right to determine if a passing vessel is truly 'innocent' rests with the coastal state—in this case, Iran. While Houthi rebels attacking ships in the Suez Canal is clearly illegal, Iran inspecting vessels within its own territorial waters could be deemed 'legal.'

Imagine a normally free-flowing road where suddenly a "DUI checkpoint" appears, holding up one car at a time. The cars behind it would quickly back up, effectively blocking the road. Iran could do the same. In a narrow waterway like the Strait of Hormuz, where ships pass one by one, Iran could simply stop a single oil tanker for a "maritime inspection" akin to a DUI check. This would, in effect, create a blockade without any military engagement. Such a 'legal' form of protest would be incredibly difficult for the international community to counter militarily, posing a significant diplomatic headache.

Who Suffers Most? America's Agenda and the Crisis for South Korea, China, and Japan

The Strait of Hormuz is the main artery through which about 85% of the oil produced by six key Middle Eastern countries—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Iran—passes. Nearly 100% of Qatar's natural gas also transits through this strait. The alarming truth is that almost half of the oil and most of the natural gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz are destined for South Korea, China, and Japan.

Therefore, if Iran were to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the countries most severely impacted would be South Korea, China, and Japan. South Korea imports about 72% of its oil, Japan 73%, and China 43% through this strait.

This is where the United States' agenda comes into play. While Middle Eastern oil was once a strategic asset for the U.S., America has transformed into the world's largest oil producer and exporter. Notably, U.S. shale oil can be produced relatively quickly with lower investment costs, making it highly flexible in terms of supply.

If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, causing disruptions in oil supply, the U.S. could actually benefit by exporting its own shale oil at higher prices. Figures like President Donald Trump might even blame inflation on the Federal Reserve while touting increased energy exports as a triumph. In essence, for the U.S., a Strait of Hormuz blockade could be a chilling scenario of 'one's misfortune is another's gain.'

Recent attacks on oil facilities between Israel and Iran further heighten the risk of escalation. Even without further escalation, a certain level of supply disruption is already underway.

Navigating the Complex Middle East Geopolitics – What's Our Response?

An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is more than just a potential military conflict; it's a complex web of economic and political interests. Iran's 'legal roadblock' scenario, in particular, makes military intervention difficult and poses a significant threat to South Korea, China, and Japan. Now more than ever, fundamental rethinking of energy security and diversified supply chain efforts are absolutely crucial.